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Know what needs to be true for your startup to grow
A growth model connects a business target to what actually needs to happen across acquisition, conversion, pricing, retention and revenue.
I work with founders to build a growth model around their business. When useful, we continue with ongoing reviews that compare the model with actual performance, test scenarios and support better growth decisions.
What needs to be true to reach the target?
A useful model breaks a business target into questions you can measure, test and update.
- How many customers do you need to reach your revenue target?
- How many leads or users are required to reach that customer target?
- What conversion rate is needed at each stage?
- What is a realistic CAC for the business?
- What level of retention does the model require?
- Which assumptions matter most to the plan?
- What happens if one of those assumptions is wrong?
Two ways to work with Modelera
Start with an initial growth model, or use it as an ongoing decision making tool.
Initial Growth Model
For founders who want to understand how their business target connects to the underlying growth drivers.
- Define the business target
- Map the growth drivers
- Build the funnel or revenue model
- Define assumptions and relevant benchmarks
- Build scenarios and sensitivity analysis
- Identify the metrics that matter most
Growth Model with Ongoing Support
For companies that want to use the model as an operating tool, rather than leave it as a one time planning exercise.
- Weekly or monthly review
- Actual versus model
- Variance analysis and assumption updates
- Scenario testing
- Identify growth bottlenecks
- Prioritize growth levers and support decisions
A growth model that is not tested against reality quickly becomes a historical document
The real value comes from using the model repeatedly to understand what changed, what is constraining growth and what to do next.
Revenue is 15% below plan.
- Traffic is above forecast
- Conversion is below forecast
- Retention is on plan
A growth model supports different stages of a startup
When there is no real performance data yet
The model relies more heavily on assumptions and relevant benchmarks to test whether the target is realistic and what needs to happen along the way.
Show how the company gets to the target
The model helps explain not only the revenue forecast, but also the growth drivers and assumptions behind it.
Replace assumptions with actual performance
This is where the model becomes more valuable. You can compare plan with reality, identify variances, update assumptions and make better decisions.
A growth model is not a financial model
What will revenue, costs and cash flow look like?
What actually needs to happen for that revenue to exist?
The model connects customer acquisition, conversion, pricing, retention and other growth drivers to the business target.
Built from hands on experience in growth, marketing and strategy
Modelera is built from hands on experience working with technology companies and startups. Avi Hershko is a business and marketing strategy advisor with more than 20 years of experience, and previously served as VP Growth at Vimeo and Head of Marketing at Fiverr.
Business and growth first. The model connects customer acquisition, conversion, pricing, retention and other growth drivers to the business target.
Growth modeling, assumptions, benchmarks and decision making
Why realistic KPIs make or break your growth model
Unrealistic targets don't just miss — they hide the levers that actually move the business. How to ground your model in benchmarks and turn it into a decision tool.
Read more →
Building your first growth model
A step-by-step walk from a blank sheet to a working model you can actually make decisions with.
Read more →Do not build a forecast just to show where you want to go
Build a model that shows what needs to happen to get there. Then keep testing it against reality.
Build Your Growth Model